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Mortgage rates remain elevated compared to where they sat earlier this year, but this week's geopolitical reprieve has pulled them back from last Thursday's peak. The bond rally eased rates from the highest level in over a year, though they still sit well above where most buyers would like them. Affordability is still the dominant story for buyers, with elevated rates continuing to pressure purchasing power across most markets. Inventory constraints in many regions add another layer of complexity, keeping monthly payments high even as home prices cool in some pockets.

For borrowers in the shorter lock window, the current guidance leans toward locking. Anyone sitting in a 7 to 15 day lock should feel confident securing today's pricing given the event risk packed into the next 48 hours. Buyers with 30 day or longer locks have more flexibility to float, especially if they believe the Fed's tone tomorrow opens the door to a more dovish path later this year. Either way, the next two days will set the tone for mortgage pricing through the rest of the summer. A borrower who locks today is betting on stability; one who floats is betting on improvement.

Between the Fed decision, inflation data, and GDP all hitting within 36 hours, this is one of the most consequential weeks of the summer for mortgage rates. The bond market's calm right now is more about waiting than conviction. Borrowers who want certainty should talk through their options before tomorrow's announcement.